Confirmation bias
This is not a diagnosis or a personality trait. A heuristic is a normal shortcut of the mind; a bias arises where it leads to a systematically wrong judgement. If you recognise yourself here, it is an invitation to gently check rather than to label yourself.
What it is
We seek and notice what confirms an already formed opinion, while disconfirming evidence passes by or gets discounted.
How it arises and is maintained
The mind saves effort: maintaining a ready opinion is simpler than rebuilding the picture. The distortion arises when the search goes one-sided. It is sustained because confirmation is calming, while disconfirmation demands revision and energy; besides, confirmations are easier to notice because they match what we expected anyway.
How it may look
- ««This person does not respect me» — you notice only cold remarks, warm ones slip by.»
- «Convinced of the diagnosis «I will not succeed» — you put success down to chance.»
Soft signs in yourself
- After an opinion forms, only confirmations are sought.
- Disconfirming facts are explained away as an «exception».
- It is hard to recall cases that do not fit the opinion.
- The other person's disagreement is taken as confirmation of their «hostility».
Questions for a Socratic dialogue
- What facts am I leaving out right now — because they do not fit?
- If I had been looking for disconfirmations, what would I have found?
- What would have to happen for me to change my mind?
- Has there been a case where a similar opinion turned out to be wrong?
Self-directed exercise
Look for disconfirmations
- Write down the opinion you are currently sure of.
- Find 2–3 facts that disconfirm it.
- Assess how significant they are, without discounting them.
- Formulate a thought that takes both confirmations and disconfirmations into account.
Core beliefs it may be linked to
- ««My opinion is the result of an objective view».»
- ««Disconfirmations are exceptions».»
- ««Changing one's mind means being weak».»
- ««If I am right, the facts will confirm me».»