cognitive bias / heuristic

Availability heuristic

This is not a diagnosis or a personality trait. A heuristic is a normal shortcut of the mind; a bias arises where it leads to a systematically wrong judgement. If you recognise yourself here, it is an invitation to gently check rather than to label yourself.

What it is

The probability or frequency of an event is judged by how easily vivid examples come to mind.

How it arises and is maintained

The mind replaces a difficult count of frequency with a simple question: «how easy is it to recall an example?». This is a shortcut — it is fast and often works. The distortion arises when the vividness of an example (recency, emotional charge, media coverage) is taken for frequency. It is sustained because fresh and frightening cases are recalled instantly, while statistics are not.

How it may look

  • «After a plane crash in the news, it feels that flying is more dangerous than driving.»
  • ««Everyone around me is divorcing» — because those are the cases being discussed.»

Soft signs in yourself

  • Risk assessment is built from fresh news rather than from statistics.
  • A vivid example of one acquaintance is generalised to «everyone».
  • It is hard to recall cases of «it did not happen», although they are the majority.
  • After an emotional story, the view of the event's frequency changes.

Questions for a Socratic dialogue

  1. Where do I know this frequency from — from statistics or from vivid examples?
  2. How many times did the event happen, and how many times did it not?
  3. What have I seen in the news this month — and how does it relate to the figures?
  4. If I had not recalled this example, how would I rate the probability?

Self-directed exercise

Replace vividness with a number

  1. Write down the event and your gut estimate of its probability.
  2. Recall actual cases of «happened» and «did not happen» over the past year.
  3. Find statistics if available, and compare with the gut estimate.
  4. Through the week, notice estimates made «by recency» and return to the numbers.

Core beliefs it may be linked to

  • ««If I remember it, it must be frequent».»
  • ««Recent means probable».»
  • ««A vivid example is more reliable than dull statistics».»
  • ««What is shown is what reality is».»